Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 38.021883 41.431589 45.228482 49.816571 55.275894 61.651643 69.797787
2025-08-24 32.451796 36.699398 41.763252 48.392081 57.083358 68.485727 85.356550
2025-08-31 30.612580 35.575110 41.803493 50.494810 62.877282 80.985993 112.240761
2025-09-07 28.064148 33.134962 39.696580 49.222092 63.547895 86.150963 130.116124
2025-09-14 26.140619 31.251912 38.029071 48.191948 64.198136 91.237801 150.398346
2025-09-21 24.135599 29.070991 35.711777 45.870986 62.345646 91.460744 160.730348
2025-09-28 23.043275 28.024293 34.856022 45.587886 63.697085 97.813518 190.119186
2025-10-05 23.023738 28.427616 36.068202 48.600870 71.225900 119.091494 288.830831
2025-10-12 22.033144 27.387694 35.062430 47.903454 71.842992 125.564979 349.561989
2025-10-19 21.430233 26.858155 34.770054 48.341932 74.716313 138.834853 484.661893
2025-10-26 21.196083 26.840711 35.246092 50.138286 80.739786 164.257503 901.526774
2025-11-02 20.710855 26.417778 35.045837 50.695465 84.232520 184.784512 1816.972368
2025-11-09 19.612719 25.158502 33.642783 49.320562 84.088242 197.215702 4963.262531
2025-11-16 18.576726 23.954903 32.274426 47.921486 83.796122 210.832928 NaN
2025-11-23 18.283655 23.853827 32.687419 49.988297 92.945194 283.850067 NaN
2025-11-30 17.461357 22.873626 31.531996 48.737422 92.745139 307.936951 NaN
2025-12-07 16.755261 22.035133 30.553714 47.724661 92.975973 338.402947 NaN
2025-12-14 15.907946 20.932417 29.048668 45.441882 88.829913 327.854099 NaN
2025-12-21 15.436887 20.405566 28.511684 45.163345 90.866758 380.416704 NaN
2025-12-28 15.472042 20.686796 29.409798 48.126715 104.817479 683.079274 NaN
2026-01-04 14.998148 20.114414 28.730517 47.440987 105.745170 815.638384 NaN
2026-01-11 14.703502 19.821760 28.541004 47.872131 111.236396 1251.522802 NaN
2026-01-18 14.589698 19.820849 28.887732 49.637934 123.416599 4008.206188 NaN